Tuesday, 8 May 2012

A few times I’ve mentioned something I call the Great Realignment, but I thought I’d discuss it again in light of the French election results. The Great Realignment is a process I believe is underway across all of western Europe. European politics is realigning along the axis of receptivity or resistance to the triple threat of Islam/Immigration/EU.

In almost all countries in the western half of the continent, the mainstream conservative party has alienated part of its electorate by embracing the multicult, political correctness, immigration, the EU and Islam. This disaffected part of the electorate is looking for, and in most cases finding, someone else to vote for. A new right-wing party, or a newly revitalised old one, emerges to challenge the right-wing establishment party and capture some of its votes.

The tendency can be seen almost everywhere. Germany is the one major exception. Probably because of the special intimidating power of the Hitler meme there, no harder right party has yet managed to win over a significant part of the electorate.

In each country the new party’s emphasis within the spectrum of issues (Islam, immigration, EU) differs according to the strength of local sentiment. But all of these upstart parties embrace the same issues to some degree. For example, in the Netherlands, Geert Wilders’ PVV places the emphasis on Islam. Immigration in general and the EU, while still topics of concern, are secondary issues. For UKIP in the UK, the emphasis is very clearly on the EU, with immigration and Islam relegated to subsidiary, but still live, concerns. In France, the Front National attacks immigration most strongly, Islam and the EU, too, but a little more indirectly.

The mainstream conservative parties have convinced themselves that they need to cuddle up to the Muslims and play nice with the multicult. This is the new reality of Europe, they tell themselves, and they need to adapt themselves to it. I beg to differ. The Muslim presence can only result in ever more anger among genuine Europeans, anger that will seek electoral expression. If the establishment right party cannot satisfy that demand, someone else will, barring extraordinary institutional constraints.

The most likely scenario in my view is that the upstart right-wing parties, inevitably characterised as “far right”, eventually take over from the current right-wing parties of the establishment, becoming the new dominant party of the right, or the two merge together with the new party stiffening the backbone of the old.

The main problem with this Great Realignment is that it could take a generation or more to complete. And with the vote on the right split, the Leftists and their Muslim allies will have a free run in the corridors of power.

This is exactly what just happened in France. There were 2 million spoilt ballots in the final round of the election, amounting to more than 5% of the vote. Analysis shows that they were cast disproportionately in areas where the Front National is strong. So these were FN voters sending a message: we don’t want either of the establishment parties; we’re not playing the game any more. As a result, Hollande will now be snuggling down in the Elysée palace, working on a bill to grant votes to foreigners.

Something similar happened in Sweden before. When the Sweden Democrats made a breakthrough into parliament, the mainstream right party chose to do a deal with the Greens instead, leading to even more multicult-friendly policies.

Until the realignment is complete, then, we are likely to see even more destructive xenomania than before. This, in turn, will produce even sharper indignation from the electorate. The question is whether the third-world demographic can outrun the growing outrage of indigenous Europeans. I don’t think it can. But still we are likely to suffer before the definitive backlash comes.

It will be interesting to see what happens to France now that the UMP is out of power. Even before the election, there were already a few voices in the UMP calling for some kind of arrangement with the Front National. Those voices will only be strengthened now. Indeed, the UMP, itself a coalition of formally separate factions, may well disintegrate, leading to some kind of new constellation on the right.

We can only hope that once the Great Realignment completes in one country, it will have some kind of cascade effect on the others, speeding up the process there. Otherwise the Muslims will be laughing all the way to the mosque and the benefits office.


Passer by said...

The leftists and some conservatives who choose to work for Islam are just puppets, temporary transitional figures. In the end, either Islam and Muslims will be dominant, or those who will resist them. Current elites are neither Islam, nor those who will resist Islam. This means that current elites will not be in power in the future. I'm more pessimistic for countries like Britain, Norway, Sweden, and France, than Italy, Germany, Spain, Austria, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Denmark.
I think that the elite in the first group of countries already decided to turn against its own people, the elite in the second group of countries had not decided what to do yet.
Also, multicultural societies, unlike more homogeneous societies, tend to vote among tribal lines, instead of left/right - for example Belgium, Macedonia, Bosnia, Lebanon, even Canada (because of Quebec) etc.

Anonymous said...

Great, CZ.

Re Sweden, it must be said that the Moderates, Moderatarna, put an extreme Somali islamist on a seat in the parliament, Riksdagen.

LozLobster said...

I get the nazi meme in germany, but the nazis were no "right wing" group, they were a bit to the right of the soviets but still far left on the political spectrum.

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