Islam versus Europe

There's an interesting article in Atlantico about the increasing demographic weight of non-Europeans in European socities, and the effect this will have on the fortunes of political parties. Here are some extracts:

France does not have complete information about people of foreign origin. The latest data date from the end of 2008. INSEE estimated their number at 11.7 million, which is 19% of the population of metropolitan France. In 2017, if the growth in absolute numbers observed between 1999 and the end of 2008 is maintained, there should be a population of foreign origin of 13 million, which would represent around 21% of the population.

The growth of the Muslim population, favoured by a high transfer rate, high endogamy, a larger youth demographic and higher fertility, should take the Muslim population of approximately 5 millions at the end of the year 2012 to 5.7 million at the time of the next presidential election, that is almost 9% of the population of metropolitan France. I estimated the number of French Muslims of voting age at 1.7 million in 2008. It's more than the difference in the number of votes between Hollande and Sarkozy in 2012. If the Muslims of foreign nationality had had the right to vote, that would have led to a a potential electorate of the order of 2.3 million in 2008 and a higher number still in 2012.

The Socialist Party thus has a great interest in pampering this electorate. There is no doubt that giving the right to vote to foreigners, if it passes, will secure this voting base. The Muslim vote in France is almost as polarised as the black vote in the United States. The Socialist party should therefore, as Barack Obama did, expend a great deal of energy in bringing Muslims to the voting booths on election day.


...80% of people with a parent or grand-parent of North-African origin (Algeria, Morocco or Tunisia) voted for François Hollande in the second round in May 2012. Among those of Italian or Spanish origin, this score is 60%, and those of Polish origin voted 55% for Hollande, that is a score close to the national results.

86% of the people describing themselves as being of the Muslim religion voted for Hollande, that is 34 points above Hollande's score at the national level.

Source: Atlantico.fr