Tuesday, 7 February 2012

A secret document from Sarkozy's presidential campaign has surfaced on the internet. It explores the scenario in which Marine Le Pen may not be able to participate in the French presidential contest because she has failed to achieve the required 500 signatures from incumbent mayors. The scenario is regarded as highly favourable from Sarkozy's perspective.

Throughout the document, Marine Le Pen is referred to by the code name "Gamma".

Here are some extracts:
To continue from our last meeting, here are the reflections we could advance on the hypothesis of a French presidential election without Gamma.

NS [Nicholas Sarkozy] would secure his first round by increasing the distance from the candidate in third place, whoever it is.

At this date, the candidate who would benefit most from the absence of Gamma is FB [François Bayrou, Democratic Movement, independent candidate], estimated at 16%. Alternative candidacy compared to NS and FH [François Hollande, Socialist candidate], but not capturing the expression of protest.

One quarter of the electorate which had announced itself in favour of Gamma would abstain from voting in the first round.

...The absence of Gamma would disturb FH [Francois Hollande, Socialist candidate] on his left, JLM [Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Left party candidate] gaining 3 to 3.5 points and FH gaining only 1 to 1.5.

Direct strategic consequences:
Qualification for the second round is assured, especially if the surprise effect of Gamma's withdrawal occurs as late as possible before sending the signatures to the Constitutional Council.

...For action:
In view of these elements, we recommend continuing the distribution of instructions aiming to drastically limit the number of signatures from major elected representatives in favour of Gamma.


Anonymous said...

A scandal!

I thought even UMP politicians already have said that it would be a perfect scandal if Marine would be prevented from running.

A scandal for France. A scandal for democrazy.

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